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NONHOMOGENEOUS RANDOM WALKS SYSTEMS ON Z

LEBENSZTAYN, Elcio; MACHADO, Fabio Prates; MARTINEZ, Mauricio Zuluaga
Fonte: APPLIED PROBABILITY TRUST Publicador: APPLIED PROBABILITY TRUST
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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We consider a random walks system on Z in which each active particle performs a nearest-neighbor random walk and activates all inactive particles it encounters. The movement of an active particle stops when it reaches a certain number of jumps without activating any particle. We prove that if the process relies on efficient particles (i.e. those particles with a small probability of jumping to the left) being placed strategically on Z, then it might survive, having active particles at any time with positive probability. On the other hand, we may construct a process that dies out eventually almost surely, even if it relies on efficient particles. That is, we discuss what happens if particles are initially placed very far away from each other or if their probability of jumping to the right tends to I but not fast enough.; CNPq[311909/2009-4]; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq); Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq); CNPq[306927/2007-1]; FACEPE[0126-1-02/06]; FACEPE

Probabilidade de redução relativa da produtividade do milho por ocorrência de déficit hídrico em função de datas de plantio na região de Piracicaba, SP; Probability of relative yield decrease in corn crop caused by water deficits in function of different sowing dates, in Piracicaba region, SP, Brazil

Nangoi, Indriati Ilse
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: dissertação de mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 11/02/2010 Português
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O déficit hídrico é uma das principais causas de perdas de produtividade agrícola. No Brasil, algumas regiões sofreram reduções elevadas na produção de milho (Zea mays L.), provocadas por estiagens, por exemplo, nas safras de 1995/1996, 1996/1997, 1998/1999, 1999/2000, 2004/2005. Para contornar ou minimizar situações de limitação hídrica é importante o planejamento da época de cultivo para melhor aproveitamento das condições climáticas locais e eficiência do manejo da lavoura. O presente trabalho objetivou subsidiar o planejamento de plantio do milho na região de Piracicaba, São Paulo, estimando a probabilidade de quebra de produtividade de cultivares de ciclo médio em decorrência do déficit hídrico, em função de datas de semeadura simuladas para o primeiro dia de cada decêndio entre setembro e fevereiro. Para isso, foi utilizado o modelo de balanço hídrico de Thornthwaite e Mather (1955) modificado por Barbieri et al. (2003), pelo qual é possível considerar a variação da capacidade de água disponível no solo ao longo do ciclo, acompanhando o crescimento do sistema radicular e representando de forma mais aproximada a situação real de armazenamento de água no solo do que o uso de um só valor de CAD ao longo do ciclo da cultura. Foram calculadas deficiências hídricas decendiais...

Um limitante superior para a probabilidade crítica do modelo dos sapos em árvores homogêneas; An upper bound for the critical probability of the frog model on homogeneous trees

Lebensztayn, Élcio
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 18/08/2005 Português
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Estudamos o modelo dos sapos na árvore homogênea, um sistema de partículas a tempo discreto cuja dinâmica é sintetizada a seguir. No instante inicial, existe em cada vértice da árvore um número aleatório independente e identicamente distribuído de partículas; aquelas posicionadas em um vértice fixado estão ativas, as demais inativas. Partículas ativas realizam passeios aleatórios simples, independentes, a tempo discreto, com probabilidade de desaparecimento (1 - p) em cada instante. Uma partícula inativa torna-se ativa assim que seu vértice é visitado por uma partícula ativa. Consideramos nesta tese o valor crítico p_c que separa a fase em que o processo se extingue quase certamente da fase em que existem partículas ativas em todos os instantes com probabilidade positiva. Provamos um limitante superior para a probabilidade crítica p_c, o qual melhora o resultado anteriormente conhecido para o caso de configuração inicial de uma partícula por vértice. O argumento utilizado consiste na descrição do modelo dos sapos como um modelo de percolação orientada que domina processos de ramificação convenientemente definidos. Obtemos também o valor assintótico do limitante superior estabelecido, mostrando ser igual ao valor assintótico da probabilidade crítica.; We study the frog model on the homogeneous tree...

One step forward: contrasting the effects of Toe clipping and PIT tagging on frog survival and recapture probability

Guimaraes, Murilo; Correa, Decio T.; Filho, Sergio S.; Oliveira, Thiago A. L.; Doherty, Paul F.; Sawaya, Ricardo J.
Fonte: Wiley-Blackwell Publicador: Wiley-Blackwell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: 1480-1490
Português
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES); Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq); Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP); Processo FAPESP: 08/54472-2; Amphibians have been declining worldwide and the comprehension of the threats that they face could be improved by using mark-recapture models to estimate vital rates of natural populations. Recently, the consequences of marking amphibians have been under discussion and the effects of toe clipping on survival are debatable, although it is still the most common technique for individually identifying amphibians. The passive integrated transponder (PIT tag) is an alternative technique, but comparisons among marking techniques in free-ranging populations are still lacking. We compared these two marking techniques using mark-recapture models to estimate apparent survival and recapture probability of a neotropical population of the blacksmith tree frog, Hypsiboas faber. We tested the effects of marking technique and number of toe pads removed while controlling for sex. Survival was similar among groups, although slightly decreased from individuals with one toe pad removed, to individuals with two and three toe pads removed...

Contribuições ao calculo de banda e de probabilidade de perda para trafego multifractal de redes; Contributions to the effective bandwidth and loss probability computing for multifractal network traffic

Flavio Henrique Teles Vieira
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 19/12/2006 Português
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A modelagem multifractal generaliza os modelos de tráfego existentes na literatura e se mostra apropriada para descrever as características encontradas nos fluxos de tráfego das redes atuais. A presente tese investiga abordagens para alocação de banda, predição de tráfego e estimação de probabilidade de perda de bytes considerando as características multifractais de tráfego. Primeiramente, um Modelo Multifractal baseado em Wavelets (MMW) é proposto. Levando em consideração as propriedades deste modelo, são derivados o parâmetro de escala global, a função de autocorrelação e a banda efetiva para processos multifractais. A capacidade de atualização em tempo real do MMW aliada à banda efetiva proposta permite o desenvolvimento de um algoritmo de estimação adaptativa de banda efetiva. Através deste algoritmo é introduzido um esquema de provisão adaptativo de banda efetiva. Estuda-se também a alocação de banda baseada em predição de tráfego. Para este fim, propõe-se um preditor adaptativo fuzzy de tráfego, o qual é aplicado em uma nova estratégia de alocação de banda. O preditor fuzzy adaptativo proposto utiliza funções de base ortonormais baseadas nas propriedades do MMW. Com relação à probabilidade de perda para tráfego multifractal...

Formulações gerais e exatas para a probabilidade de outage e para o desempenho de um metodo hibrido de combinação em sistemas sem fio; General exact formulations for the outage probability and for the performance of a hybrid combining method in wireless communication systems

Flavio du Pin Calmon
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: dissertação de mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 30/03/2009 Português
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Este trabalho propõe uma formulação nova e prática para a probabilidade de outage em sistemas de comunicação sem fio, denominada Probabilidade de Outage Conjunta (JOP, do inglês Joint Outage Probability). Dado um conjunto de restrições para as razões sinal-interferência-mais-ruído de sinais mutuamentente interferentes, a JOP corresponde à probabilidade de que pelo menos uma dessas restrições não seja atendida. Uma solução exata e geral para a JOP é demonstrada, junto com uma condição necessária e suficiente para que ela seja não-trivial. Ademais, uma expressão fechada paraa JOP em um ambiente Rayleigh onde os sinais são independentes é apresentada. As formulações obtidas são ilustradas através de um exemplo em alocação de potência. Além disso, este trabalho introduz e investiga um esquema geral de combinação de diversidade, denominado MRCS, baseado na seleção de sinais combinados por razão máxima. Este método de combinação possui uma implementação simples e uma formulação analítica matematicamente tratável, podendo ser diretamente aplicada a situações onde existe seleção de sítio. Uma análise geral da distribuição de probabilidade (confiabilidade), taxa de cruzamento de nível e duração média de desvanecimento na saída do combinador é apresentada...

The Interpretation of Verbal Probability Expressions Used in the IAS/IFRS: Some Portuguese Evidence

Teixeira, Cláudia; Fialho Silva, Ana
Fonte: Instituto Politécnico do Cávado e do Ave Publicador: Instituto Politécnico do Cávado e do Ave
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Português
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One of the main arguments in favour of the adoption and convergence with the international accounting standards published by the IASB (i.e. IAS/IFRS) is that these will allow comparability of financial reporting across countries. However, because these standards use verbal probability expressions (e.g. “probable”) they require professional accountants to interpret and classify the probability of an outcome or event taking into account those terms and expressions and to best decide in terms of financial reporting. This paper reports part of a research on the interpretation of verbal probability expressions used in the IAS/IFRS by the auditors registered with the Portuguese Securities Market Commission (CMVM). This analysis was made “in isolation”, that is, without considering a context. The findings show that these terms and expressions are differently perceived by the auditors. Thus the paper provides evidence that suggests that it is fair to review the use of verbal probability expressions in accounting standards, namely the IAS/IFRS.

The Interpretation of Verbal Probability Expressions Used in the IAS/IFRS: The Auditors

Teixeira, Cláudia; Fialho Silva, Ana
Tipo: lecture
Português
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One of the main arguments in favour of the adoption and convergence with the international accounting standards published by the IASB (i.e. IAS/IFRS) is that these will allow comparability of financial reporting across countries. However, because these standards use verbal probability expressions (v.g. “probable”) when establishing the recognition and disclosure criteria for accounting elements, they require professional accountants to interpret and classify the probability of an outcome or event taking into account those terms and expressions and to best decide in terms of financial reporting. This paper reports part of a research we carried out on the interpretation of “in context” verbal probability expressions used in the IAS/IFRS by the auditors registered with the Portuguese Securities Market Commission, the Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (CMVM). Our results provide support for the hypothesis that culture affects the CMVM registered auditors’ interpretation of verbal probability expressions through its influence on the accounting value (or attitude) of conservatism. Our results also suggest that there are significant differences in their interpretation of the term “probable”, which is consistent with literature in general. Since “probable” is the most frequent verbal probability expression used in the IAS/IFRS...

Estimation of the agricultural probability of loss: evidence for soybean in Paraná state

Ozaki,Vitor Augusto; Olinda,Ricardo; Faria,Priscila Neves; Campos,Rogério Costa
Fonte: Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural Publicador: Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/03/2014 Português
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In any agricultural insurance program, the accurate quantification of the probability of the loss has great importance. In order to estimate this quantity, it is necessary to assume some parametric probability distribution. The objective of this work is to estimate the probability of loss using the theory of the extreme values modeling the left tail of the distribution. After that, the estimated values will be compared to the values estimated under the normality assumption. Finally, we discuss the implications of assuming a symmetrical distribution instead of a more flexible family of distributions when estimating the probability of loss and pricing the insurance contracts. Results show that, for the selected regions, the probability distributions present a relative degree of skewness. As a consequence, the probability of loss is quite different from those estimated supposing the Normal distribution, commonly used by Brazilian insurers.

Performance of the probability distribution models applied to heavy rainfall daily events

Marques,Rosângela Francisca de Paula Vitor; Mello,Carlos Rogério de; Silva,Antônio Marciano da; Franco,Camila Silva; Oliveira,Alisson Souza de
Fonte: Editora da Universidade Federal de Lavras Publicador: Editora da Universidade Federal de Lavras
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/08/2014 Português
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Probabilistic studies of hydrological variables, such as heavy rainfall daily events, constitute an important tool to support the planning and management of water resources, especially for the design of hydraulic structures and erosive rainfall potential. In this context, we aimed to analyze the performance of three probability distribution models (GEV, Gumbel and Gamma two parameter), whose parameters were adjusted by the Moments Method (MM), Maximum Likelihood (ML) and L - Moments (LM). These models were adjusted to the frequencies from long-term of maximum daily rainfall of 8 rain gauges located in Minas Gerais state. To indicate and discuss the performance of the probability distribution models, it was applied, firstly, the non-parametric Filliben test, and in addition, when differences were unidentified, Anderson-Darlling and Chi-Squared tests were also applied. The Gumbel probability distribution model showed a better adjustment for 87.5% of the cases. Among the assessed probability distribution models, GEV fitted by LM method has been adequate for all studied rain gauges and can be recommended. Considering the number of adequate cases, MM and LM methods had better performance than ML method, presenting, respectively, 83% and 79.2% of adequate cases.

Prenatal alcohol exposure did not affect impulsivity in rats that performed delay or probability discounting tasks

Pupe,Stefano; Brys,Ivani; Asherson,Philip J. E.; Bizarro,Lisiane
Fonte: Pontificia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro; Universidade de Brasília; Universidade de São Paulo Publicador: Pontificia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro; Universidade de Brasília; Universidade de São Paulo
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/06/2011 Português
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Individuals who fall under the spectrum of the Fetal Alcohol Syndrome have a higher prevalence of several cognitive disturbances, including a greater probability of being diagnosed with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Some of these effects, such as hyperactivity and attentional impairments, are already well established in the literature. The assessment of impulsive choice, however, has received little attention in human and animal studies. In the present study, we attempted to investigate the effects of prenatal ethanol exposure on two tasks related to impulsive choice that have never been studied in this condition: delay and probability discounting. METHOD: Rats prenatally exposed to ethanol (liquid diets with 0%, 10%, or 35% ethanol-derived calories [EDC] or laboratory chow) were trained to respond for food in either delay (n = 21) or probability (n = 48) discounting tasks performed in computer-controlled operant conditioning chambers. RESULTS: Prenatal treatment failed to differentiate the rates at which the rats chose the larger reinforcer associated with delay - in a task in which 35% EDC was not tested - or risk, although the results suggest that further tests are warranted.

Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Space Object Conjunction Assessment

Markley, F Landis; Carpenter, James R.
Tipo: gsfc-e-daa-tn14351 Formato: application/pdf
Português
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This paper shows how satellite owner/operators may use sequential estimates of collision probability, along with a prior assessment of the base risk of collision, in a compound hypothesis ratio test to inform decisions concerning collision risk mitigation maneuvers. The compound hypothesis test reduces to a simple probability ratio test, which appears to be a novel result. The test satisfies tolerances related to targeted false alarm and missed detection rates. This result is independent of the method one uses to compute the probability density that one integrates to compute collision probability. A well-established test case from the literature shows that this test yields acceptable results within the constraints of a typical operational conjunction assessment decision timeline. Another example illustrates the use of the test in a practical conjunction assessment scenario based on operations of the International Space Station.

Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Analysis of Orbital Conjunction Data

Carpenter, J. Russell; Gold, Dara; Markley, F. Landis
Tipo: gsfc.cp.7510.2012; aiaa guidance, navigation, and control conference; 19-22 aug. 2013; boston, ma; united states Formato: application/pdf
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We propose a Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for analysis of commonly available predictions associated with spacecraft conjunctions. Such predictions generally consist of a relative state and relative state error covariance at the time of closest approach, under the assumption that prediction errors are Gaussian. We show that under these circumstances, the likelihood ratio of the Wald test reduces to an especially simple form, involving the current best estimate of collision probability, and a similar estimate of collision probability that is based on prior assumptions about the likelihood of collision.

Bounding the Failure Probability Range of Polynomial Systems Subject to P-box Uncertainties

Giesy, Daniel P.; Kenny, Sean P.; Crespo, Luis G.
Tipo: nf1676l-14093; esrel 2012 - annual european safety and reliability conference; 25-29 jun. 2012; helsinki; finland Formato: application/pdf
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This paper proposes a reliability analysis framework for systems subject to multiple design requirements that depend polynomially on the uncertainty. Uncertainty is prescribed by probability boxes, also known as p-boxes, whose distribution functions have free or fixed functional forms. An approach based on the Bernstein expansion of polynomials and optimization is proposed. In particular, we search for the elements of a multi-dimensional p-box that minimize (i.e., the best-case) and maximize (i.e., the worst-case) the probability of inner and outer bounding sets of the failure domain. This technique yields intervals that bound the range of failure probabilities. The offset between this bounding interval and the actual failure probability range can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort.

Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) Approach to Determine the Probability of Cross-System Failures for a Space Launch Vehicle

Lo, Yunnhon; Ward, Natalie C.; Shih, Ann T.
Tipo: nf1676l-9383; 10th international probabilistic safety assessment and management conference; 7-11 jun. 2010; seattle, wa; united states Formato: application/pdf
Português
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Quantifying the probability of significant launch vehicle failure scenarios for a given design, while still in the design process, is critical to mission success and to the safety of the astronauts. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is chosen from many system safety and reliability tools to verify the loss of mission (LOM) and loss of crew (LOC) requirements set by the NASA Program Office. To support the integrated vehicle PRA, probabilistic design analysis (PDA) models are developed by using vehicle design and operation data to better quantify failure probabilities and to better understand the characteristics of a failure and its outcome. This PDA approach uses a physics-based model to describe the system behavior and response for a given failure scenario. Each driving parameter in the model is treated as a random variable with a distribution function. Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic calculations to statistically obtain the failure probability. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show how input parameters affect the predicted failure probability, providing insight for potential design improvements to mitigate the risk. The paper discusses the application of the PDA approach in determining the probability of failure for two scenarios from the NASA Ares I project

Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

Giesy. Daniel P.; Kenney, Sean P.; Crespo, Luis G.
Tipo: 12th aiaa/issmo multidisciplinary analysis and optimization conference; 10-12 sep. 2008; victoria; canada Formato: application/pdf
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In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

Directed Design of Experiments (DOE) for Determining Probability of Detection (POD) Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD)

Generazio, Ed
Tipo: 50th annual air transportation association (ata) non-destructive testing (ndt) forum; 37-30 aug. 2007; orlando, fl; united states Formato: application/pdf
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This viewgraph presentation reviews some of the issues that people who specialize in Non destructive evaluation (NDE) have with determining the statistics of the probability of detection. There is discussion of the use of the binominal distribution, and the probability of hit. The presentation then reviews the concepts of Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection of Inspection Systems (DOEPOD). Several cases are reviewed, and discussed. The concept of false calls is also reviewed.

Using Correlation to Compute Better Probability Estimates in Plan Graphs

Bryce, Daniel; Smith, David E.
Formato: application/pdf
Português
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Plan graphs are commonly used in planning to help compute heuristic "distance" estimates between states and goals. A few authors have also attempted to use plan graphs in probabilistic planning to compute estimates of the probability that propositions can be achieved and actions can be performed. This is done by propagating probability information forward through the plan graph from the initial conditions through each possible action to the action effects, and hence to the propositions at the next layer of the plan graph. The problem with these calculations is that they make very strong independence assumptions - in particular, they usually assume that the preconditions for each action are independent of each other. This can lead to gross overestimates in probability when the plans for those preconditions interfere with each other. It can also lead to gross underestimates of probability when there is synergy between the plans for two or more preconditions. In this paper we introduce a notion of the binary correlation between two propositions and actions within a plan graph, show how to propagate this information within a plan graph, and show how this improves probability estimates for planning. This notion of correlation can be thought of as a continuous generalization of the notion of mutual exclusion (mutex) often used in plan graphs. At one extreme (correlation=0) two propositions or actions are completely mutex. With correlation = 1...

Estimating the Probability of Events that Have Never Occurred: When is Your Vote Decisive?

King, Gary; Gelman, Andrew; Boscardin, John
Fonte: American Statistical Association Publicador: American Statistical Association
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
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Researchers sometimes argue that statisticians have little to contribute when few realizations of the process being estimated are observed. We show that this argument is incorrect even in the extreme situation of estimating the probabilities of events so rare that they have never occurred. We show how statistical forecasting models allow us to use empirical data to improve inferences about the probabilities of these events. Our application is estimating the probability that your vote will be decisive in a U.S. presidential election, a problem that has been studied by political scientists for more than two decades. The exact value of this probability is of only minor interest, but the number has important implications for understanding the optimal allocation of campaign resources, whether states and voter groups receive their fair share of attention from prospective presidents, and how formal "rational choice" models of voter behavior might be able to explain why people vote at all. We show how the probability of a decisive vote can be estimated empirically from state-level forecasts of the presidential election and illustrate with the example of 1992. Based on generalizations of standard political science forecasting models, we estimate the (prospective) probability of a single vote being decisive as about 1 in 10 million for close national elections such as 1992...

6.041 / 6.431 Probabilistic Systems Analysis and Applied Probability, Fall 2002; Probabilistic Systems Analysis and Applied Probability

Medard, Muriel; Tsitsiklis, John N.; Bertsekas, Dimitri P.; Abou Faycal, Ibrahim C. (Ibrahim Chafik)
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Modeling, quantification, and analysis of uncertainty. Formulation and solution in sample space. Random variables, transform techniques, simple random processes and their probability distributions, Markov processes, limit theorems, and elements of statistical inference. Interpretations, applications, and lecture demonstrations. Meets with graduate subject 6.431, but assignments differ. From the course home page: Course Description This course is offered both to undergraduates (6.041) and graduates (6.431), but the assignments differ. 6.041/6.431 introduces students to the modeling, quantification, and analysis of uncertainty. Topics covered include: formulation and solution in sample space, random variables, transform techniques, simple random processes and their probability distributions, Markov processes, limit theorems, and elements of statistical inference. The materials are largely based on the textbook, Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, written by Professors John Tsitsiklis and Dimitri Bertsekas (see http://www.athenasc.com/probbook.html for more information).